Rabu, 27 Januari 2010

Taxpayers should collect tax forms themselves

The tax office says taxpayers this year should obtain their tax forms themselves at the nearest tax office branch before the end-of-March deadline.

Last year the tax office sent tax forms to taxpayers because of the low awareness of taxpayers' obligation to pay, tax office chief M. Tjiptardjo told a seminar Wednesday.

"The tax form, which we last year sent to your address, should this year be collected by yourselves," he said.

Tax return forms are documents that are completed by taxpayers and filed with the tax office to determine the amount of income tax an individual must pay.

Tjiptardjo said he felt there was a growing awareness among taxpayers to pay their taxes given that 45 percent of almost 12 million taxpayers filed their tax returns last year.

BI may keep key rate despite rising inflation

Inflation may accelerate moderately in January due to higher administered prices, particularly rice, analysts said - and the central bank will likely keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged despite the inflationary pressure.

Inflation this month could increase 0.4 percent from December, bringing year-on-year inflation up to 3.3 percent, driven by rising prices for foodstuffs, mainly rice and sugar, Standard Chartered Bank economist Eric Sugandi said Tuesday.

Year-on-year inflation in December was 2.78 percent, according to the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the lowest rate in a decade. BPS will announce the official figure for January's inflation on Feb. 1.

"As inflation remains manageable in the first quarter of 2010 and as the current Bank Indonesia *BI* rate level is supportive of the rupiah, we expect BI to keep the rate unchanged at 6.5 percent," said Eric, adding that the rate would help banks to increase lending because of the low borrowing costs for businesses.

BI cut its rate by 25 basis points to 6.5 percent in August and has kept it at that level since September to spur economic growth.

It is estimated the economy will have grown by 4.3 percent last year, and it may increase to 5.2 percent this year on the back of higher business expansion as the global economy begins recovery, BI said.

BI's board of governors will meet on Feb. 4 to determine its policy rate.

Acting Bank Indonesia Governor Darmin Nasution has said the current BI rate is acceptable as inflation will return to its normal level of between 4 and 6 percent this year.

Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said the price of rice should be closely overseen.

Rice is the main staple food for 231 million Indonesians.

Deputy Agriculture Minister Bayu Krisnamurthi said the price of rice had risen because of the weather. Rain forced farmers in some areas to delay planting their rice crop, which may delay the harvest season, he said.

But the government has intervened to improve marketing and the supply of rice in areas where the price is high, he added.

"If needed we can intervene in marketing operations in central markets with up to 1,000 tons of rice per day," said Bayu.

Danareksa Research Institute chief researcher Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said the government should intervene to increase rice supply as inflationary pressures would be higher in the second half this year.

At 4:10 p.m. Tuesday the rupiah fell 0.8 percent to Rp 9,415 per US dollar due to concern China would slow down lending and economic growth, dimming the outlook for regional exports, Bloomberg reported. The local currency earlier reached Rp 9,440, the weakest level since Jan. 4.

Indonesia's foreign exchange reserves rose to nearly US$70 billion last week from $66 billion as of Dec. 31, said BI Deputy Governor Hartadi A. Sarwono, meaning the central bank has more space to intervene in currency markets.

Demonstration against SBY held in Makassar

Students held a demonstration against President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in Makassar on Wednesday, criticizing him for not delivering his campaign promises in his first 100 days in office.

One of the protest coordinators, Muhammad Ikbal from Makassar State University, said a bigger rally would be held on Thursday.

The demonstrators said the government only tried to protect its image and thought about their supporting political parties, but it forgot about the people.

They urged the government to swiftly resolve the Bank Century bailout case, to reject free trade and neoliberalism, and to nationalize strategic assets

Jumat, 22 Januari 2010

Oil falls below $76 amid weak demand

Oil prices fell below $76 a barrel Friday after government figures showed that the United States continues to use less energy than last year.

By early afternoon in Europe, benchmark crude for March delivery was down 29 cents to $75.79 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange

On Thursday, the contract dropped to $75.66, the lowest price since Dec. 23, before settling at $76.08, down $1.66.

Also hurting oil prices was a tumble in Asian and European stock markets after President Barack Obama proposed tougher bank regulations, which may see less hot money flowing into commodities markets.

"The president's line of action against the banks' trading desks and investments in hedge funds will be a concern for the stability of some investment flows in the global market place," said Olivier Jakob of Petromatrix in Switzerland. "However, it will not happen overnight and will face some very strong lobbying that could water down some of the initial intentions."

Goldman Sachs and other major banks have helped funnel billions of dollars of speculative money into oil and natural gas contracts during the past several years.

Some analysts said buyers could return to the market if the Nymex contract fell a bit more.

"Market sentiment is bearish as fundamentals remain weak but prices could bounce back if it hits $75. There will be some support at this level," said Clarence Chu, a trader with Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore.

Energy prices tumbled Thursday after the Energy Information Administration reported that demand for gasoline and jet fuel both weakened during the past few weeks.

America is consuming less petroleum than the same time last year, and refineries, which have struggled to pass higher crude costs along to consumers, are now operating at the lowest levels since September 2008.

"This is the lowest level that refiners have operated at in at least 20 years, with the exception of hurricane-induced shutdowns," said JBC Energy in Vienna.

Natural gas supplies dropped more than expected to 2.6 trillion cubic feet and are now slightly lower than the five-year average.

"In the big picture, nothing is really changed on the demand side," said Petromatrix's Jakob. "It is still not there and the cold weather is not making much of a difference."

In other Nymex trading in February contracts, heating oil rose 0.26 cent to $1.9882 a gallon, while gasoline rose 0.91 cent to $1.9920 a gallon. Natural gas futures gained 10.6 cents to $5.721 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, Brent crude for March delivery fell 20 cents to $74.38 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Garuda launches new services to net more Japanese travelers

State airline company PT Garuda Indonesia, in cooperation with the immigration office, has launched an onboard visa application service on inbound flights from Japan.

The introduction of the service coincides with the launch of a premium tour and travel operation in Japan, managed by Garuda’s local partner and subsidiary.

The maiden flight of the “visa on board” service began Thursday, carrying approximately 180 tourists from Tokyo’s Narita International Airport to Ngurah Rai International Airport in Denpasar, Bali.

Each tourist is required, after checking in their baggage at the airport, to pay US$10 for a seven-day visa or $25 for a 30-day visa at a designated counter.

The latter is extendable for another 30 days without extra charge.

Two immigration officers are stationed in all Garuda flights from Japan to process the tourist visa applications.

Garuda currently flies to Narita, Chubu International Airport in Nagoya, and Kansai International Airport in Osaka.

Non-Japanese travelers on these flights can also make use of the “visa on board” service.

Those granted visa clearance are given a pass card that allows them to go through immigration checkpoints at Indonesian airports without further inspection.

Garuda CEO Emirsyah Satar dubbed the new service “the only one of its kind in the global airline industry”, adding it would also be introduced in the airline’s flights from South Korea and China.

Aboard the plane with Emirsyah to celebrate the maiden flight were Indonesian Ambassador to Japan Jusuf Anwar, Director General for Immigration Muhammad Indra, and Culture and Tourism Ministry Director for Marketing I Gde Pitana.

Indra said the new service was a step forward from the current visa-on-arrival, and a product of the office’s first 100-day program.

“This service is also a response to inconveniences that may occur in the visa-on-arrival procedures at airports,” he said.

He played down the possibility of security threats from the new visa clearance system, saying travelers from Japan posed a low security threat.

Pitana praised the new initiative, saying it would do a lot to detract from Indonesia’s oft-ridiculed airport-based immigration services.

“The tourism industry is really about keeping up an image, and the immigration service is the first thing travelers have to deal with,” he said.

He added he had high hopes for the new service to be able to help boost the number of Japanese travelers visiting Indonesia.

From January to November last year, the number of visitors to Indonesia from Japan reached 405,000, or a 17 percent drop from the same period in 2008.

Pitana said the fall was largely due to the impact of the global economic crisis on Japanese consumers.

To further develop the Japanese market, Garuda, in cooperation with its local partner Good Luck Tour Co., launched Wednesday its Japan operation of the Garuda Orient Holiday, a tour and travel package that offers wider alternatives for travel activities for premium travelers, provided by Garuda subsidiary Aerowisata.

Aerowisata’s Japan operation is the fourth of its kind after Australia, New Zealand and South Korea.

Among destinations included in the Orient Holiday package are diving adventures in Bunaken and Raja Ampat, tours of historical sites such as Borobudur and Prambanan, ecotourism in Komodo Island and Bali, and cultural tours to the Saung Udjo Angklung Studio and batik producers in Surakarta.

“With the Orient Holiday operation now in Japan, we expect to boost visitor numbers to Indonesia using Garuda by at least 10 percent,” Emirsyah said.

Senin, 18 Januari 2010

`President should take responsibility for Century'

Former head of the presidential advisory council Adnan Buyung Nasution said that President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono should take responsibility for the Bank Century bailout if the decision to salvage the bank was in line with state policy.

Adnan said that Yudhoyono should be brave enough to explain to the public the government's decision to inject Rp 6.76 trillion (US$716 million) into the bank in order to end the protracted debate at the House of Representatives, which has been working on the case for two months.

"If the decision to save Bank Century was in line with state policy then the President should take full responsibility," Adnan, who claimed to speak in his capacity as an activist, said as quoted by tempointeraktif.com on Saturday.

He warned that Yudhoyono's inaction and failure to publicly respond to the case would create more difficulties for his officials, just as Vice President Boediono and Finance Minister Sri Mulyani had been bombarded by the House inquiry team last week.

Economist Ismet Hasan Putro agreed, saying the country would not need to spend so much time on investigating Bank Century if Yudhoyono took over the case.

"It is now in the hands of Yudhoyono. If he wants to speak out, the government could focus on other things," he said in a weekly discussion on Saturday.

A number of members of the House committee have demanded that President Yudhoyono testify over the Bank Century case.

Gayus Lumbuun from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) also said the President knew about the details of the decision to bail out the bank.

Inquiry committee member Akbar Faisal from the People's Conscience Party (Hanura) said the presence of Yudhoyono was needed to clarify a statement from Sri Mulyani, who said she had sent a text message to Yudhoyono and then vice president Jusuf Kalla to report the bailout decision.

Kalla told the committee he had never read the message.

In his testimony at the House committee, Kalla said that Boediono, who was then governor of Bank Indonesia, refused to arrest the bank's owner Robert Tantular.

Vice President Boediono in his state visit to East Kalimantan on Friday confirmed Kalla had ordered Robert's arrest.

However, Boediono said that Bank Indonesia had asked the immigration office to prevent Robert Tantular from traveling overseas days before Kalla ordered the arrest.

The House inquiry committee has yet to consider summoning Yudhoyono, its chairman said.

"We do not have the data yet," said committee chairman Idrus Marham.

He declined to comment on Adnan's statement asking Yudhoyono to take responsibility for the case.

The committee has questioned, among others, Vice President Boediono, who was the Bank Indonesia governor at a time the bailout was extended, former vice president Jusuf Kalla and Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati.

Idrus, who is the Golkar secretary -general, said the committee would have to regroup to decide whether to summon the President.

Adnan Buyung also asked the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) to investigate the Bank Century case to determine whether the decision to bail out the bank was in line with state policy.

"If the KPK discovers the bailout was not in accordance with state policy then it must investigate President Yudhoyono," he said.

He said the result of the investigation should then be submitted to the Constitutional Court.

President denies replacing Sri Mulyani

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has denied that he will replace Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati with the head of the Fiscal Policy Agency Anggito Abimanyu in connection with the Rp 6.7 trillion (US$ 736.84 million) Century Bank bailout scandal.

“The information is not true. There is no official statement about changing Mulyani and Anggito Abimanyu,” the presidential spokesman Julian Aldrin Pasha said in Ngawi, East Java on Monday.

He told tempointeraktif.com that the president had not held any meetings to discuss a possible cabinet reshuffle.

Some politicians from the Golongan Karya (Golkar) party have said that the president may reached an agreement with its chairman Aburizal Bakrie to replace the minister with Anggito in February.

Several other sources have said that Yudhoyono was disappointed with Mulyani's decision, made during a meeting with then Bank Indonesia (BI) governor Boediono in November 2008, to salvage the bank using bailout funds.

The sources, who asked for anonymity, said the disappointment was more due to the minister's failure to consult with the president on the bailout decision, although Sri Mulyani has insisted she reported all her moves. (ewd)

Asia Pimpin Pemulihan Ekonomi Global

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia di tahun 2010 diramalkan akan semakin cepat hingga mencapai 5,5 persen setelah sebelumnya Indonesia tampil sebagai anggota G-20 dengan pertumbuhan tercepat ketiga selama 2009.

Hal tersebut disampaikan Chief Ecomonist sekaligus Group Head of Global Research Standard Chartered, Gerard Lyons dalam forum bertajuk "A Post Crisis World : Implication for Asia" di Hotel Four Season, Jakarta, Senin (18/1/2010). Diperkirakan pula, pada tahun 2012 nanti pertumbuhan Indonesia akan meningkat hingga 7 persen.

Kondisi pemulihan ekonomi Indonesia yang terkendali dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang cepat juga terjadi di wilayah Asia secara keseluruhan. "Asia diharapkan untuk memimpin pemulihan global pada 2010. Kami perkirakan pertumbuhan global akan mengalami rebound hingga 2,9 persen dari penyusutan sebesar 1,9 persen pada 2009. Sementara Asia, dipimpin China dan India diperkirakan akan meningkat hingga 7 persen tanun ini dari 4,5 persen tahun lalu," ujar Gerard Lyons.

Menurut dia, permintaan sektor domestik di Asia akan menjadi kunci utama pertumbuhan ekonomi. Hal ini sama dengan yang terjadi di Indonesia. Pertumbuhan sangat dipengaruhi sektor domestik sehingga kontraksi ekonomi dunia tidak berpengaruh terhadap Indonesia.

Kamis, 14 Januari 2010

2010 market strategy : Moderate is good

Going into 2010, we expect Indonesia’s GDP growth to moderately improve to 5.2 percent from 4.3
percent in 2009 on continued support from domestic consumption and government infrastructure-related projects.

Excesses would be bad for the Indonesian market, including a robust global economic recovery, which would result in underperformance for the Jakarta Composite Index. This is because Indonesia’s GDP composition remains largely dependent on domestic consumption.

Net exports account for merely 10 percent of GDP, while private plus government consumption accounts for close to 65 percent. Thus a V-shaped global economic recovery would pave the way for outperformance in export-oriented countries such as Singapore and Hong Kong.

Spikes in commodity prices would also have an adverse impact on Indonesia, given the government’s 2010 fuel subsidy bill of Rp 68.7 trillion based on the oil price assumption of US$65 per barrel.

Significantly higher oil prices in 2010 would likely create inflationary pressures, increase the country’s subsidy bill and inflating the budget deficit.

If we assume the oil price will average $80 per barrel in 2010, the government’s subsidy bill would increase to Rp 107.7 trillion or $11.4 billion. This means a $15 price hike in the oil price would be equivalent to Rp 39 trillion or $4.14 billion in an additional subsidy bill for the government.

If the global oil price were to rise beyond $85, we believe the government would be forced to increase the price of subsidized fuel, resulting in eroded consumer purchasing power and higher than expected inflation.

Assuming moderately higher oil prices (below US$85 a barrel), we expect the country’s 2010 inflation rate to normalize to 5.6 percent, up from just 2.8 percent in 2009. Note that this assumes the government holds off on its planned 25 percent average electricity rate hike.

Therefore, moderately higher commodity prices including oil would translate to domestic interest rates staying low for longer. Currently, we are looking at a relatively benign 25-basis-point hike starting in the second half of 2010 to bring the BI benchmark rate 50 basis point higher to 7 percent.

Having said that, we believe cyclical/interest rate-sensitive stocks will continue to outperform defensives in H1, but the likely magnitude of their outperformance will be much less, as the bulk of the acceleration in macro momentum has occurred. This means that for outperformance, investors must be extremely stock selective, owning a combination of cyclicals and defensives.

Our 2010 top five picks are as follows:

Telkom Indonesia, for its defensive and laggard status.

Bumi Resources, benefiting from higher coal prices as only 25 percent of its contracts have been priced.

BNI, for its exposure to government infrastructure-related project financing, undemanding valuation and laggard status.

Timah, benefiting from tin price recovery in 2010.

AKR Corporindo, a combination of defensive sorbitol manufacturing with the kicker coming in from its fast-growing petroleum distribution business.

Happy trading!


The writer is senior vice president and head of research at Bahana Securities

Stocks End Higher after GDP News

After being solidly lower in the morning, stocks recovered and ended slighly higher Thursday. Economic reports showed second quarter GDP fell 1%, unchanged from a previous reading, and weekly jobless claims fell.
Also, the FDIC announced that more banks have landed on its "problem" list. The agency said it had 416 banks on its "problem" list at the end of the second quarter, up from 305 at the end of March. Banks on the "problem" list are considered a higher risk of failure and face tougher regulatory scrutiny. The FDIC also said borrowers are falling behind on loans at record levels and across most major loan categories.
In economic news, U.S. second quarter GDP fell 1.0% in the preliminary report, unrevised from the advanced reading released a month ago, after contracting 6.4% in the first quarter. The reading was much better than the 1.5% contraction that markets expected. Among the GDP components, unexpected upward revisions to consumption and residential investment offset a slightly smaller downward revision to inventories. The GDP chain price index was revised to a flat reading from +0.2% previously, while the PCE core index held at a 2.0% pace.
"The stronger than expected reading will likely add more confirmation that the bottom is found," says S&P economist Beth Ann Bovino.
Weekly jobless claims fell 10,000 to 570,000 in the week ended Aug. 22 from 580,000 the week before. Markets expected a 565,000 reading for the week. The four week moving average declined to 566,250 from 571,000 previously. Continuing claims for the week ended Aug. 15 plunged 119,000 to 6,133,000, pushing the insured unemployment rate down to 4.6% from 4.7% the week before, according to S&P.
"S&P's IPC doesn't "expect this recovery to be spelled with either an upper- or lower-case 'V,' but rather a lazy 'U'," says S&P MarketScope. S&P notes its fourth quarter real GDP growth estimate of 0.8% is "downright anemic, when compared with usual growth in the quarter immediately following the end of recession."
On Thursday, the 30-stock Dow Jones industrial average was up 37.11 points, or 0.39%, to 9,580.63. The broad Standard & Poor's 500-stock index rose 2.86 points, or 0.28%, to 1,030.98. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index edged up 3.30 points, or 0.16%, to 2,027.73.
Treasuries were lower, with the 10-year notes off 02/32 to 101-17/32 for yield of 3.448%. The 7-year Treasury notes were off 02/32 to 101-02/32 for yield of 3.086% following the government's $28 billion 7-year note auction that was well received.
The dollar fell 0.70 to 77.95, while gold rose to $947.20. Crude oil, which skidded to a $69.83 low this morning, was up 83 cents to $72.26.
Financial stocks such as AIG offset weakness among oil and gas and telecom issues.
Among stocks in the news, Boeing shares rose after the company announced that the first flight of the 787 Dreamliner is expected by the end of 2009 and first delivery is expected to occur in fourth quarter 2010. Boeing has concluded that initial flight-test airplanes have no commercial market value beyond the development effort. Therefore, costs previously recorded for the first 3 flight-test airplanes will be reclassified from program inventory to R&D expense, resulting in an estimated non-cash charge of $2.5 billion pre-tax, or $2.21 per share, against third quarter results.
Citigroup shares rose 0.43 to 5.06 on a report saying hedge fund manager John Paulson has been quietly snapping up shares of beleaguered Citigroup in recent weeks. The New York Post reported that Paulson was said to have acquired a roughly 2% stake in Citi -- below the 5% threshold that would require him to disclose his investment stake in a securities filing.
Toll Brothers posted $2.93 third quarter loss per share, vs. $0.