Rabu, 21 April 2010

Century Case Drowning by Gayus

Reimbursement to the Century Bank bailout cost the state assessed as 6.7 trillion or 6700 billion. Formation of Special Committee Questionnaires Rights Century which has been calling witnesses and parties deemed responsible for any has been done. Various elements of society, so spirits guarding the case of Century Bank until demonstrations happen everywhere.

Century Bank is now drowning case by case with the suspect Gayus tax broker, Director General of Taxation Ministry of Finance officials RI. If compared to the value, Century Bank case is much greater 268 times than the value of the findings in the case of Gayus. However, mass media or TV rarely preach the extent to which follow up the case of Century Bank.

Once again, a case that cost the state came from the department or institution that deals with finance: the Ministry of Finance. The high salaries and allowances of employees of these institution have not been able to reduce the intention to avoid bribery, a broker case, and other things that smell KKN.

Selasa, 20 April 2010

Tommy still owes government Rp 2.3t, says Finance Ministry

Car company PT Timor Putra Nasional owned by Hutomo "Tommy" Mandala Putra, son of late former president Soeharto, should pay debts up to Rp 2.37 trillion (US$263.07 million) to the state, the Finance Ministry said.

The amount is exclusive of a 10 percent administration fee, meaning Timor should pay Rp 2.61 trillion in total, the ministry said in a statement on Monday.

This is another government's attempt to recover state debts from Timor, established in 1995 and granted "national car producer" status when Soeharto was in power, in a legal case that began more than a decade ago.

According to the ministry, Timor was given a credit facility at Bank Bumi Daya (now merged with Bank Mandiri) using the firm's current account and deposit account as collateral.

On March 31, 1999, the credit was taken over by the now-defunct Indonesian Bank Restructuring Agency (IBRA) after Timor defaulted on its debts.

On April 30, 2003, the IBRA sold Timor's assets to PT Vista Bella Pratama, excluding the current account and deposit account, which were seized by the tax office.

On Aug. 8, 2008, the sale of Timor was cancelled by Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, who took over the responsibility of IBRA, after the Corruption Eradication Commission found out that Vista was affiliated with Timor and Tommy and did not represent an independent buyer.

The cancellation of the sale was confirmed by an agreement signed between the Finance Ministry and Vista, and a ruling made by the Central Jakarta District Court on Nov. 27, 2008.

Therefore, all debts belonging to Timor automatically became state debts, including the current account and deposit account that have never been sold to Vista, the ministry said.

On Nov. 26, 2008, Mulyani asked Bank Mandiri to disburse and transfer the funds in the current account and deposit account to the state treasury's account to be set off against existing Timor's debts. This leaves Timor owing a remaining Rp 2.37 trillion in state debts.

Bibit: I respect due process of law

Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) leader Bibit Samad Rianto said Tuesday he respected the South Jakarta District Court’s order for him and fellow deputy chairman Chandra M Hamzah to face trial for alleged power abuse and bribery.

The court ruled in favor of bribery suspect Anggodo Widjojo, who had filed a pre-trial request against suspension of a criminal investigation into Bibit and Chandra.

Bibit said that the Criminal Procedure Code allowed individuals to file pre-trial requests verdict.

“However, as the media know, I have never committed the acts as charged. On Nov. 3 last year at the Constitutional Court we all heard that we were framed,” Bibit was quoted by kompas.com.

He said he appreciated the prosecutors who appealed the court’s verdict.

House against cigarette production cut

The House of Representatives’ Commission XI on finance has opposed the government’s plan to lower cigarette production to 248.4 billion sticks from 261 billion this year.

Golkar Party lawmaker Nusron Wahid said on the sidelines of a budget revision hearing on Tuesday the production cut would cause the state to lose Rp 10 trillion in potential revenue.

“The production should stand at 261 billion as originally planned,” Nusron said.

He suggested that the government stop drafting a regulation on control of tobacco impacts, which would require the government to lower national cigarette production.

Nusron also suggested that the government lower excise tax imposed on clove cigarette products but increase that imposed on unflavored cigarette products. “Consumers of unflavored cigarette usually have a higher income than clove cigarette consumers,” he said

The government has proposed an increase in tax excise for all cigarette products in a bid to boost revenue to Rp 57 trillion (US$6.27 billion) in 2010, up from Rp 54 trillion in 2009.

Senin, 12 April 2010

Indonesia's $100 billion budget: Is debt an issue?



I have received many encouraging responses to my first blog. Thank you. This time, let's look at Indonesia's budget. Last year, Indonesia's budget reached the magical threshold of US$100 billion. With total expenditures of Rupiah 985 trillion and an average exchange rate of 9,750 Rupiah per US dollar, Indonesia's government spent exactly US$101 billion. In 2009, the budget may not increase and will likely decline in US$ terms. With the global financial crisis the Rupiah has depreciated against the US$, similar to most other developing countries currencies. However, it is safe to assume that in the next few years Indonesia will have a budget which exceeds US$100 billion and is set to reach its own magical threshold of Rp 1,000 trillion in the near future.

One of the most contentious topics over the past decade has been Indonesia's debt and the role of international institutions. Some still think Indonesia has a debt problem and that loans from international institutions, such as the World Bank, have contributed to Indonesia's previous debt burden. The opposite is true, and here's why.

First, let's look at Indonesia's debt. Indonesia's debt levels have declined at an unprecedented rate. As mentioned in my previous blog post, Indonesia is possibly a world-record holder in debt reduction – at least of any large country in recent history – with debt levels declining from 80 percent (2001) to close to 30 percent (2008). In 2001, Indonesia's government had to spend 23 percent of its budget on debt service. Today, it is down to 11 percent, freeing up enormous potential for spending on Indonesia's development.

This performance is remarkable even within East Asia, a region which has generally done well the past decade. Most major countries have kept their debt levels stable. Some countries, like the Philippines, kept their levels stable at relatively high levels (although also declining markedly since 2005); others, like Malaysia, kept debt levels at moderate levels; meanwhile, China stayed in a low range of below 30%. Indonesia is the only country that shows a continued and sharp decline in debt levels and is poised to be one of the countries in the region with the lowest debt levels (see chart 1).


Second, let's look at the role of financing by international institutions such as the World Bank and other development partners. Financing by these international partners has been surprisingly stable over the past 15 years. It has been below or around US$5 billion, except during, and shortly after, the 1998 crisis. During the same period, Indonesia's budget increased from an estimated US$30 billion (1995) to US$100 billion today. In short: in the past, donors made an important financial contribution to Indonesia's development program; today, it is Indonesia's own resources that are driving 95 percent of expenditures (see chart 2).


Loans from official lenders, although declining in relative terms, have actually helped to reduce Indonesia's debt. How is this possible? The main reason is that loans from institutions such as the World Bank are much cheaper than borrowing from the national and international bond markets, the costs of which have increased substantially in recent years. Like almost any other country Indonesia is borrowing to finance its (modest) deficit, to refinance its stock of debt and to attract specific investments, including investment in the infrastructure and social sectors. Had it not been for official lenders, Indonesia would have needed to borrow from other sources at higher interest rates, thus increasing its debt level compared with where it is today.

So where is the problem? Debt is clearly not the main problem, but there is no reason for complacency. Before the 1997/98 Asian crisis, Indonesia also had low debt levels that exploded almost overnight when its banks failed. In addition, recent months have demonstrated that even strong performing developing economies can face difficulties in raising funds.

In my next post, I'll look more closely at what Indonesia is spending its resources on today and the country's opportunities for the next five years.

Fitch Upgrades Indonesia Debt Rating to Decade High

Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Fitch Ratings upgraded Indonesia’s long-term foreign and local-currency credit ratings to the highest level since the Asian financial crisis, citing the economy’s resilience to the global crisis and better finances.

The ratings were raised to BB+ from BB, and are now one level below investment grade, the company said in an e-mailed statement today. The outlook on both ratings is stable, it said.

“The rating action reflects Indonesia’s relative resilience to the severe global financial stress test of 2008- 2009, which has been underpinned by continued improvements in the country’s public finances, a fundamental sovereign rating strength, and a material easing of external financing constraints,” Ngiam Ai Ling, a Fitch director of Asian sovereigns, said in the statement.

Indonesia, which needed a bailout from the International Monetary Fund during the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, avoided following the world’s largest economies and neighboring countries into a recession last year. The Fitch upgrade comes after the government this month sold $2 billion of 10-year bonds at a higher yield than the Philippines.

“Fitch’s rating move will increase the attractiveness of Indonesian assets,” said Eric Alexander Sugandi, a Jakarta- based economist at Standard Chartered Plc. “Indonesia must attract more foreign investors to accelerate economic growth.”

Moody’s, S&P

Holders of Indonesian debt, including Aberdeen Asset Management Plc and Vegagest SGR SpA, have said the country would need to offer higher yields as a rally in emerging-market bonds slows after the biggest gains in six years.

Government bonds rose after the Fitch upgrade. The yield on the 11 percent note due November 2020 fell four basis points to 9.68 percent, according to midday prices at the Inter Dealer Market Association. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point and bond yields move inversely to prices.

Moody’s Investors Service said on Jan. 21 its Ba2 rating on Indonesia remains stable, while Standard & Poor’s raised the outlook on its BB- rating for the country to positive on Oct. 23. S&P’s rating is three levels below investment grade, and Moody’s is two levels less than investment grade.

The last time Fitch ranked Indonesia’s foreign-currency rating BB+ was in early January 1998. Before today, Indonesia’s local-currency long-term debt was last rated BB+ in April 1999.

Political Boost

Southeast Asia’s biggest economy avoided the global recession following nine interest rate cuts by the central bank and after President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s re-election in July boosted confidence he will maintain policies that have helped the economy expand more than 6 percent in the two years to 2008.

Fitch’s rating upgrade reflects Indonesia’s economic resilience and an improving balance of payments, Bank Indonesia Deputy Governor Hartadi Sarwono said in Jakarta today. Indonesia’s foreign-exchange reserves rose to $69 billion as of Jan. 22, he said.

“There is fiscal stability for the authorities to embark on an ambitious agenda to tackle longer-term developmental issues, such as addressing infrastructure constraints and investment promotion as well as raising industrial and export competitiveness,” Fitch’s Ngiam said.

President Yudhoyono pledged to double infrastructure spending to as much as $140 billion in his second five-year term until 2014 to help boost economic growth.

Bank Indonesia forecasts the economy will expand as much as 5.5 percent this year from an estimated 4.3 percent in 2009. Indonesia may grow an average 6.6 percent annually over the next five years, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said Jan. 4.

Kamis, 08 April 2010

Govt moves carefully in offering oil and gas blocks

After failing to find investors for most of the oil and gas blocks offered last year, the government is now making more careful preparations to auction up to 35 new fields later this year.

The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has announced the names of the 35 blocks on its official website, but Edy Hermantoro, an upstream oil and gas director at the ministry said the actual number of blocks to be auctioned could be less.

“This is what we call early market research. We announce the blocks so that we can get responses from the oil and gas contractors. The blocks reaching the actual tender process could be only 15 or 20 blocks, depending on the responses of contractors,” Edy said on Monday.

He added that expected contractors’ responses included reactions to the completeness of data on blocks. “They may give us inputs if they think the data is incomplete,” said Edy, adding that the government was focusing on finding serious investors.

On its website on Monday, the ministry announced the maximum 35 blocks planned to be auctioned this year. Of the 35 blocks, 19 are to be offered under regular tender procedures and the remaining 16 blocks are planned to be offered under joint study mechanisms.

Under the latter tender method, interested investors may propose to the government to undertake a joint study to assess oil and gas reserves in one or more blocks.

Once the studies find positive indications of reserves, then the government opens a bidding
process where the first bidding rights will go to the company that proposed, financed and undertook the studies.

The 19 blocks planned to be offered under the regular tender are: East Natuna, SE Baronang, Nias I, Nias II, Tanjung Jabung, Sunda Strait I, Sunda Strait II, Sunda Strait III, West Kangean I, West Kangean II, South Kangean I, South Kangean II, SE Mandar, SW Makassar, West Sebuku, Saliki, East Tarakan, SW Bird Head and Wokam.

The oil and gas blocks planned to be offered under the joint study arrangements include: North Sokang, NW Natuna, Gurita, Sumbagsel (southern Sumatra).

Relocation of overseas factories lifts shoe exports

Relocation of shoe factories from other Asian countries such as China and Vietnam to Indonesia will help boost Indonesian footwear exports, an association of local shoe producers has said.

Harijanto, a senior executive of the Indonesian Footwear Association (Aprisindo) said that shoe exports were predicted to rise by 11 percent to US$2 billion this year from $1.8 billion recorded last year. This increase is partly due to the relocation of factories from China and Vietnam to Indonesia, in addition to expansion of existing footwear factories.

“Our exports can even reach more than $2 billion when the relocation and expansion projects
have been fully completed,” he said during a press conference in Jakarta. He said footwear exports had already reached more than $400 million in the first three months of the year.

At present, Indonesia is the third largest footwear exporter in the world after China and Vietnam.
Harijanto also said he expected that in the next five years, footwear exports would pass the $2.4 billion target, the record high previously achieved in 1996 just before the Asian banking and financial crisis hit the country in 1998, causing severe currency depreciation.

According to Harijanto, there are three sports shoe brands that used to be manufactured on the mainland of China which are now produced here. These include Mizuno and Asics Tiger, both originally from Japan, as well as New Balance from the United States.

Orders for Mizuno and New Balance are now handled by PT Panarub Dwikarya, while Asics Tiger shoes are produced by the Indonesian subsidiary of Taiwanese company Shang Yao Fung.

Meanwhile, Adidas and Nike have also increased their orders to local manufacturers, he said, without giving further details.

It is estimated that local footwear manufacturers are expected to spend $200 million in new investment in the next few years to boost production. “Their total production can reach about 20 million pairs by the end of 2011,” Harijanto.

For example, he said, production of New Balance shoes would increase from 50,000 pairs last year to 500,000 pairs by the end of this year and would eventually reach 1 million pairs per annum next year.

Harijanto said more and more global brand footwear companies were relocating factories from China to Indonesia.

Other Chinese companies are switching orders for branded shoes to their Indonesian partners rather than relocating factories, he said.

“China’s economy is already overheating. Their production is too big back there,” he said. “They are worried something would happen if anything gets too big.”

Relocation of overseas factories along with expansion of local shoe factory production will contribute to the projected increase in RI production figures, he said.

At least 20 injured in Aceh quake

The 7.2 magnitude earthquake in Simelue regency, Aceh, had injured 20 people as of 3 p.m., a statement from the Health Ministry said.

The quake had not killed any residents and no evacuation process had been conducted, the statement added.

The injured victims have been treated in hospitals' parking lot.

According to the release, the local hospitals and the Simeulue Health Agency thus far could still manage the situation.

As many as two community health centers (Puskesmas) and one assisting health centers underwent a medium-scale damage, while six health centers and two assisting health centers experienced mild-scale ones.

SBY promises to protect local industries

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono promises the government will protect sectors threatened to be harmed with the full implementation of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA).

The President told a press conference here Wednesday the government was paying considerable attention to the Indonesian public’s concerns over the implementation of ACFTA and promised it would seek solutions for any problems possibly emerging from the agreement.

Many local industries have expressed fear over possible influx of cheap Chinese products that will harm their own as a result of the full implementation of ACFTA.

The government has been criticized for not being able to address the matter.

“The government is paying attention to ACFTA problems,” Yudhoyono said in response to the concerns.

“It is of our agenda to improve the partnership between the two countries, and we will discuss well any problems concerning certain sectors possibly emerging from (the implementation of ACFTA), and find
solutions for the problems,” he added.

The President said the government would ensure that both workers and local industries were well-protected from negative impacts of the ACFTA.

“Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao will visit Indonesia in late April… We will discuss a partnership that will be of great benefits for both China and Indonesia,” he said.

The President explained that both countries had signed a strategic partnership in a number of fields, including the economy.

He added that China had expressed intention to boost cooperation with the archipelago in the field of infrastructure, energy and trade.

Obama heads to Prague to sign arms deal

President Barack Obama's vision of a world without nuclear arms moves closer to reality on Thursday when he and President Dmitry Medvedev sign a pivotal treaty aimed at sharply paring U.S. and Russian arsenals while working to repair soured relations.

Obama has not been able to deliver on all of the nuclear aspirations he outlined in Prague just a year ago - visions on disarmament that helped earn him the Nobel Peace Prize. Back then, a landmark speech to an enthusiastic crowd gathered in a Prague square included a promise to quickly seek ratification of a comprehensive nuclear test ban.

That goal remains unfulfilled. But on Thursday, the Czech capital will serve as the venue of a pledge achieved.

At noon in the Spanish Hall - a lavish Renaissance chamber within the Czech's capital's ornate presidential castle complex - the U.S. and Russian presidents will sign the "New START" treaty. With that, they will commit their nations to slash the number of strategic nuclear warheads by one-third and more than halve the number of missiles, submarines and bombers carrying them, pending ratification by their legislatures.

The new treaty will shrink those warheads to 1,550 over seven years. That still allows for mutual destruction several times over. But it will send a strong signal that Russia and the U.S., which between them own more than 90 percent of the world's nuclear weapons, are serious about disarmament.

And it opens the way for further cuts. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Tuesday that Obama has instructed his national security team to pursue another round of arms reduction talks with Russia, to follow up on the replacement for the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty being signed Thursday.

The aim would be to conduct wider talks to include for the first time short-range U.S. and Russian nuclear weapons as well as weapons held in reserve or in storage.

Beyond deeply reducing nuclear arsenals, the U.S. sees "New START" as a key part of efforts to "reset" ties with Russia, which had become badly strained under the Bush administration and engage Moscow more in dealing with global challenges. Among these is Iran's defiance of U.N. Security Council demands that it curb its nuclear program to ease fears it seeks to make nuclear arms.

The new pact is only part of the Obama administration's new nuclear strategy. It will be signed only days after the White House announced a fundamental shift that calls the spread of atomic weapons to terrorists or rogue states - nations, like North Korea or Iran that do not abide by nonproliferation rules - a worse menace than the Cold War threat of mutual destruction.

"For the first time, preventing nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism is now at the top of America's nuclear agenda," Obama said Tuesday in detailing key components of an in-depth nuclear strategy review.

While the formal occasion is signing the treaty, Obama is expected to use the occasion to push for Russian support for new U.N. sanctions to punish Iran's refusal to give up uranium enrichment. Chances of enlisting China, an even more stubborn opponent of Iran sanctions than Moscow, improve if the Kremlin is on board.

Other U.S. nuclear initiatives will follow the Prague signing, with the White House planning to lead calls for disarmament in May at the United Nations during an international conference on strengthening the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Before that, government leaders from more than 40 countries will gather in Washington next week to discuss boosting defenses against terrorists seeking nuclear weapons.

The deep cuts in warheads and delivery systems and a legally binding system to ensure against cheating, makes "New START" the most significant nuclear arms treaty in a generation, and Medvedev, in comments published before the signing lauded it as "an important step" in disarmament and arms control efforts.

Some Russian arms control analysts say Russia badly needed the deal to ease the burden of replacing a large number of Soviet-built missiles which need to be decommissioned for age. "This treaty is in Russia's best interests," said Sergei Rogov, the head of the USA and Canada Institute, an influential think tank that advises the Kremlin on foreign policy.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the deal could "open new possibilities for developing the U.S.-Russian partnership" - but warned Moscow reserves the right to withdraw if the planned U.S. missile defense system grows into a threat.

Russia has welcomed Obama's decision to scrap the previous administration's plans for missile defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic while voicing concern about the prospects of a revamped U.S. project, including a planned facility in Romania.

Lavrov said that the site in Romania poses no immediate threat, but added that Russia will closely watch further U.S. missile deployments and could opt out of the new treaty if it sees that U.S. missile interceptors acquire a capability to intercept Russia's strategic missiles.

Russia shares Obama's goal of a nuclear-free world, but other nations must join the disarmament process, he said.

Moscow also warned that the U.S. plans to fit some of its nuclear-tipped missiles with conventional warheads could be an obstacle to ridding the world of nuclear weapons.

Lavrov argued that Russia views such weapons as just as destabilizing as nukes.

Russia hasn't tried to follow the U.S. example partly because most of its missiles lack precision for hitting pinpoint targets with conventional explosives. Its conventional military forces has steadily degraded, prompting the military to rely increasingly on nuclear weapons.

While the docile Russian parliament will do the Kremlin's bidding on the treaty, the ratification process in the U.S. Senate could be troublesome. Fearing potential trouble, Moscow has said that Russian lawmakers will synchronize their moves to ratify the deal with the U.S. legislators.

Sensitive to East European concerns, Obama is tending to other business while in Prague - hosting a dinner for leaders from 11 Central and Eastern European nations formerly in or near Moscow's orbit, who worry about the Kremlin's post-communist push for influence.

Senin, 29 Maret 2010

Light participation


Fish traders at Kramat Jati market in East Jakarta kept their lights on during the Earth Hour campaign, on Saturday evening when people were supposed to turn off their lights, although many were unaware of this. Many night workers had to keep their lights on between 8:30 p.m. and 9:30 p.m.

Officials: Suicide bombs kill 35 on Moscow subway

Two female suicide bombers blew themselves up on Moscow's subway system as it was jam-packed with rush-hour passengers Monday, killing at least 35 people and wounding more than 30, the city's mayor and other officials said.

Emergency Ministry pokeswoman Svetlana Chumikova said 23 people were killed at the Lubyanka station in central Moscow. The station is underneath the building that houses the main offices of the Federal Security Service, or FSB, the KGB's main successor agency.

A second explosion hit the Park Kultury station about 45 minutes later. Chumikova said at least 12 were dead there.

Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov said both explosions were believed to have been set off by female suicide bombers as the trains entered the stations. In the first case, officials said the explosion was on the train; there was no immediate information on the location of the second blast.

"The first data that the FSB has given us is that there were two female suicide bombers," Luzhkov told reporters at the Park Kultury site.

Russia's top investigative body also said terrorism was suspected.

The last confirmed terrorist attack in Moscow was in August 2004, when a suicide bomber blew herself up outside a city subway station, killing 10 people.

Responsibility for that blast was claimed by Chechen rebels and suspicion in Monday's explosions is likely to focus on them and other separatist groups in the restive North Caucasus region.

The Moscow subway system is one of the world's busiest, carrying around 7 million passengers on an average workday, and is a key element in running the sprawling and traffic-choked city.

The blasts practically paralyzed movement in the city center as emergency vehicles sped to the stations. Helicopters hovered over the Park Kultury station area, which is near the renowned Gorky Park.

Passengers, many of them in tears, streamed out of the station, one man exclaiming over and over "This is how we live!"

At least a dozen ambulances were on the scene.

KPK questions BI deputy governor Budi Mulya in Century case

The Corruption Eradication Commission [KPK] questioned deputy governor of Bank Indonesia Budi Mulya Monday about his possible involvement in the Bank Century bailout case.

“It’s a continuing investigation following a previous probe of [another] BI deputy governor Pak Budi Rochadi [some time ago],” KPK spokesman Johan Budi said as quoted by kompas.com.

Budi Mulya was being questioned in relation to BI's Rp 689 billion (US$75.1 million) liquidity assistance to the ailing Bank Century in 2008.

The antigraft body is focusing its investigations on graft that allegedly occurred in Bank Century's handling of the BI liquidity assistance and the Rp 6.76 trillion (US$716 million) bailout, and the subsequent channeling of funds.

Bakrieland to build Disneyland in Sukabumi

PT Bakrieland Development is planning to expand its entertainment and recreational properties by building a Disneyland park, following the development of its Jungle Water Park at the Lido tourism spot in Sukabumi, West Java.

The American-based Disneyland project plan is in line with Bakrie’s 54-kilometer toll road project that will connect Ciawi and Sukabumi, kompas.com reported Monday

Bakrieland president director Hiramsyah S. Thaib, however, declined to elaborate on the proposed Disneyland project.

Rabu, 24 Maret 2010

Analysis: The ‘drivers’ that make drivers choose new cars in Indonesia


Like many cities around the world, traffic on the road is a nightmare in Jakarta except perhaps between 2 a.m. and 6 a.m. Other metros like Surabaya and Bandung aren’t far behind. Whether its good news or bad, the fact remains that only 3.5 percent of Indonesian households can afford to maintain the family car. Another 31 percent have opted for the family motorcycle. There are three million car drivers, not including taxi bus or truck drivers. In contrast, there are 45 million motorcycle riders. Many of them would like a car instead, which would strangulate the city and cause rigour-mortis to set in. Any hope of a real mass transit system seems remote, to be believed only when it is real. So Jakartans still have some room to crawl in, what little there is left.

In the meantime, the car industry is still crawling on the road to recovery. The elite group of car buyers were among the small fraction of Indonesian society affected or concerned by the global financial crisis. Demand is yet to go back to levels similar to the days leading up to the fuel price hikes. As at December 2009, there were 1.54 million people thinking of buying a car in the next four years. 1.29 million of them were considering a used vehicle, leaving only 298,000 in the market for a new car.

That’s cars for consumers, not including commercial, government, military or police fleet purchases.

In a world where the capacity to supply is far in excess of current demand, carmakers from around the world are flocking to Indonesia. From Ferrari and Porsche to Renault and Citroen, they are all now here for a piece of the action. The multi-billion rupiah question is whether they all know what the Indonesian aspiring to buy a new car really wants today. Roy Morgan Single Source has quite a few answers for anybody who is interested. Twenty seven percent of people thinking of a new car want a four-door station wagon, which definition in Indonesia of course includes the trusty Kijang. 25 percent want a five-door hatchback and 13 percent a three-door version.

But there’s a remarkable 12-percent who desire a coupe, sports or two-door convertible. That translates to roughly 36,000 units of big boys’ toys. Back to reality, another 9 percent are keen on a people mover or van. Almost 5 percent are thinking pick-up, just 4 percent the classic four-door sedan. The original SUV will be considered by only 1.4 percent of new car buyers. That just about wraps up who wants what. Except of course, the brands. Today, Honda leads with 26 percent share of the ‘future market’, closely followed by Toyota with 25. Way behind them is Mitsubishi with 7 percent.

Suzuki, Mazda, Daihatsu and Nissan seem to have lost their shine, falling behind the more prestige names like Jaguar, Mercedes-Benz and BMW.

Then there’s the other set of multi-billion rupiah questions, why they want what what they want. While pleasure seekers have different wants from the needs of the family man, the opinions of all new car intenders in Indonesia produce an interesting diversity of expectations. Reputation still leads.

Eighty six percent “will only buy a car with a proven track record”. The same number “need lots of space and seating flexibility in a vehicle”. That’s followed by 82 percent with “ a long warranty is essential to me when buying my new car”. Not surprisingly, 82 percent believe “when I’m making a major purchase I tend to rely on facts and figures rather than gut feel”.

Many women are likely to smirk at this attempt at rationalizing bad choices based on looks alone. Marketers however must acknowledge that well-worn phrase, perception is reality. Fact or fiction, many buyers need the assurance of logic before they are willing to acknowledge falling prey to magic.

Cognitive dissonance or post-purchase rationalization aside, the fact remains that “after reliability, looks and style are most important to me” is a view shared by 73 percent of intenders.

“Safety is my number one concern” believes eight out of 10 buyers, with almost as many agreeing that “performance and road-holding are my number one concern”. Seventy eight percent “want a car that has all the extras as standard” while 74 percent “spend a lot of time researching my options before deciding what car to buy”. How many of these concerns are known and addressed by automakers operating in Indonesia, one wonders. There is little evidence or acknowledgement of these needs and wants in the advertising that we see.

These conclusions are based on Roy Morgan Single Source, a syndicated survey with over 25,000 Indonesians 14 years and older interviewed each year. The national database, comprising interviews conducted in the cities, towns and villages around the country is updated every quarter.

Gas shortage costs PLN up to Rp 2.4 trillion

State power firm PT PLN must carry operating costs which are Rp 2.4 trillion (US$263 million) higher than planned this year due to gas shortages affecting its Muara Tawar power plant at Bekasi, West Java.

PLN’s primary energy director Nur Pamudji said less gas supply means more oil fuel consumption.
“We must increase the power plant’s oil-based consumption by 618,000 kiloliters until the end of this year and this will cost us additional spending of Rp 2.4 trillion,” Nur Pamudji said.

PLN’s head of corporate finance division Yusuf Hamdani said the production cost of electricity generated from oil-based fuels was far higher than that generated from gas.

“In 2009, the average production cost for gas was Rp 318 per kWh [kilowatt hour], while the production cost for oil-based fuel was Rp 1,383 per kWh,”Yusuf said.

The combined cycle Muara Tawar power plant can use both diesel oil and gas. The plant receives gas from state gas distributor PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGN).

PGN and PLN have signed two gas sales and purchase contracts for the power plant. Under the first contract, PGN must supply as much as 200 billion British thermal units of gas per day (BBTUD) to PLN until 2012. As for the second contract, PGN has to supply 100 BBTUD to PLN for the same period. But the second contract is interruptible, meaning PGN will only supply PLN when additional gas is available.

Nur Pamudji said the gas supply had dropped to 100 BBTUD since early March, this year from an average of 250 BBTUD in 2009. “I thought the shortage was only temporary, but later on it became clear that the shortage could last until December,” Nur Pamudji said.

The Muara Tawar power plant comprises four operating units. “Currently, only one unit still receives gas,” Nur Pamudji said.

PGN’s gas supply to PLN and other industries fell this year due to a decline in the gas supply from ConocoPhillips’s South Sumatra field, PGN’s president director Hendi Prio Santoso said as quoted by Bloomberg last week.

Gas contributes 26 percent to PLN’s total energy consumption. Coal and oil-based fuels contribute 45 percent and 19 percent, respectively. The remaining 10 percent is from new and renewable energy sources such as hydro and geothermal.

PLN’s coal consumption has increased as some of the power plants planned and financed under the
first phase of the first 10,000 megawatt (MW) electricity crash program have started to come into operation.

All power plants under the first 10,000 MW project are coal-fired power plants. Nur Pamudji said PLN coal consumption reached 30 million tons this year, up from 22 million tons in 2009. However PLN coal consumption to feed an increased number of coal-fired power stations coming on stream is estimated to increase to 38 million tons in 2011.

RI, HK agree to eliminate double taxation, tax evasion


Indonesia and Hong Kong signed a bilateral agreement Tuesday on the avoidance of double taxation and the prevention of tax evasion in the hope of enhancing mutual business opportunities.

The agreement will eliminate double taxation issues encountered by Hong Kong and Indonesian businesses, and bring lower tax rates to cross-border economic activities.

It was signed by Hong Kong Financial Secretary John C. Tsang and Indonesian Finance Minister Sri
Mulyani Indrawati.

“This would help in doing business in Hong Kong and Indonesia. It provides certainty for businesses.

They will pay less tax than they are now. So we expect this would facilitate and enhance business opportunities,” Tsang said in an interview with The Jakarta Post.

He said Hong Kong and Indonesia should foster closer business cooperation after the recent global financial crisis. He said trade in Asia should be expanded to compensate for the decline in exports to the US and EU countries.

“We can do more things together, particularly as our traditional markets — the US and EU countries — are importing less. So I think we need to expand our own regional market to compensate for exports we have lost in traditional markets,” he said.

Under the agreement, he said, Hong Kong and Indonesian businesses will have their taxes more than halved.

Tax income on dividends which now stand at 20 percent, will be cut to 10 percent; and for a shareholder owning at least a 25 percent share in a company, tax will be further reduced to 5 percent.

Tax on royalties, which now stand at 20 percent, will be capped at 5 percent.

The Indonesian directorate general of taxation said it would pursue similar tax agreements with other countries to pursue tax evaders.

“We’re negotiating with Serbia and Oman. We’re renegotiating with Malaysia and some European countries. What’s important is information exchange. We can ask information now,” said Syarifuddin Alsah, director of tax regulations.

On Tuesday, Tsang also met the central bank to discuss cross-border banking supervision and
development of Islamic finance, which he said was an “ethical investment tool”.

“We see a lot of potential for Islamic finance as an alternative investment. Not only for Muslims, but for everyone,” he said.

Tsang said on Wednesday he would meet the Coordinating Economic Minister Hatta Rajasa, Trade Minister Mari Elka Pangestu and Fuad Rahmany, head of the Capital Market and Financial Institutions Supervisory Agency, to discuss various issues.

He also explained that Hong Kong would become a platform for the internationalization of the Chinese currency the renminbi to become one of the world’s convertible currencies, which would change the dynamics of the world currency system.

“Now the US dollar is the main reserve currency, the main currency for business in the world for
most transactions. But as the economy of China grows, as the business involving Chinese entities grows in the future, then the renminbi will become a more important currency,” he said.

“When it becomes a convertible currency, a significant and international currency, certainly the dynamic of it, and also of the US dollar, and the euro, will surely change. But we have to look at the geopolitics at that time. So we can see how things will change,” he added.

Few firms join industry revitalization program

The Industry Ministry has reduced the amount budgeted to its machinery revitalization program in the textile, footwear and leather industries, as well as sugar mills, due to the lack of response from eligible firms.

This year, the government is allocating a total of Rp 202.74 billion (US$22.3 million) for industrial revitalization, including Rp 144.35 billion for textile firms, Rp 34.25 billion for footwear and leather companies and Rp 24.14 billion for sugar mills, the ministry announced Tuesday.

Last year, the government allocated Rp 342.5 billion to the same sectors under the same program, providing manufacturers with access to incentives to help them replace old machines with new ones to help improve industrial competitiveness.

“In absolute size, the total budget has been cut from Rp 342.5 billion last year to Rp 202.74 billion this year,” the ministry’s director general for metal, machinery, textile and miscellaneous industries Ansari Bukhari said during the launch of this year’s program at his office.

“We have learned our lessons that the utilization of the budget would only amount on average to between 63 and 64 percent of the total.”

He said he expected budget spending would be more efficient and effective with the cuts.
Likewise, the ministry’s inspector general Sakri Widianto said, “It’s not about the size of the budget is, but how much it’s spent.”

Unlike in the textile industry, fewer participants were interested in the proposed program for the footwear and leather industries and sugar mills, Ansari said.

He elaborated that these companies had been reluctant to join last year’s program due to market uncertainties caused by the continuing negative impacts of the global financial crisis.

He also said the ministry had to remove the Scheme Two component of the program due to the lack of response from producers despite the fact that the program had been implemented three years running.

There are two schemes in the textile machinery revitalizing program. Under Scheme One, the government provides 10 percent discounts for manufacturers who want to purchase new machines, while Scheme Two is aimed at small and medium enterprises and provides soft loans.

“Apparently, the number of applicants under Scheme Two was very low, while on the manpower side it took a lot of work to do the administration,” said Ansari.

Secretary of directorate general for small and medium industries Andang Fatati Nadya said her office had begun this year to include the textile, footwear and leather industries in its discount program.

“We will give 25 percent discount for every machine purchased overseas and 30 percent discount for every machine purchased locally,” she said. The machines should be worth between Rp 40 million and Rp 2 billion each, she said.

In addition, the director for the textile industry Arryanto Sagala said there were reportedly four participants under Scheme Two in 2007 and two in 2008 who could not pay their debts on their soft loans. This may have discouraged borrowers.

Landslide kills three in Sumatra

Three people were killed and eight others injured after a landslide hit Saok Laweh, Solok regency, West Sumatra on Wednesday.

West Sumatra disaster management coordinator Ade Edward said the landslide occurred at 6:30 a.m., destroying three homes and an auto repair shop near Jl. Solok, just four kilometers from Muara Kalaban, Sawahlunto.

“This disaster is related to the behavior of the local people, who build homes near the ravine," he said