Cabinet reshuffle buzz: Truth or dare?

Politicians and observers apparently are talking about something this weekend: Is the cabinet reshuffle proposal from the Democratic Party a bluff or a real threat?

Earlier on Thursday, three Democratic Party executives, Amir Syamsuddin, Anas Urbaningrum and Jafar Hafsah, met with President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, proposing the latter to replace ministers from disloyal coalition partners, which the three said had refused to defend the government in the investigation of the Bank Century bailout case.

The parties are the Golkar Party, the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the National Mandate Party (PAN), the United Development Party (PPP) and the National Awakening Party (PKB).

The ministers from coalition parties include Communications and Information Technology Minister Tifatul Sembiring (PKS), Religious Affairs Minister Suryadharma Ali (PPP), Agriculture Minister Suswono (PKS), Maritime Affairs and Fisheries Minister Fadel Muhammad (Golkar), Manpower and Transmigration Minister Muhaimin Iskandar (PKB).

But presidential spokesman Julian Aldrin Pasha said the President had not given a response to the proposal.

Yudhoyono’s rivals in the July 8 presidential election, former president Megawati Soekarnoputri of the opposition Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and former vice president Jusuf Kalla of Golkar, said over the weekend it was the President’s right to decide a reshuffle.

“That’s the President’s business. If he considers it important, that is good,” Megawati said while opening the regional conference of the PDI-P in Bali.

A PDI-P lawmaker told The Jakarta Post that the Democratic Party had approached Megawati, opening four possible positions for the opposition to fill.

Kalla, meanwhile, said that he was ready to see Golkar cadres replaced or retained.

Several critics aired their opinions Saturday, saying that the proposal is a bluff to make coalitionparties gather their acts together.

“In political communication theory, this is called a ‘fear-arising communication’ model, which in practice has never succeeded,” political observer Tjipta Lesmana told a discussion in Jakarta, Antara news agency reported. “This model has proven to be ineffective. The more pressure applied, the harder partners defy.”

University of Indonesia political observer Arbi Sanit said Golkar and PKS were the main targets of the reshuffle “threat”, with their being “most critical” among coalition members during questioning sessions of the inquiry committee. The inquiry committee has summoned both Vice President Boediono and Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati to explain the decision behind the Rp 6.76 trillion (US$716 million) bailout of the ailing bank. Some of the lawmakers launched harsh questions to the Vice President and the minister and others said in public that they believed Boediono should be impeached.

He predicted that in response to the threat, Golkar and the PKS would seek to negotiate with the Democratic Party, a move that could lead to a vague conclusion to the committee’s hearing.

Democratic Party lawmaker Ramadhan Pohan said his party did not press the coalition partners, but to the contrary, the partners were pressing his.

He said the proposal for reshuffle was a “call” and a “soft reminder” for partners, not an attempt to press them.